China’s housing price bubble burst more than the Dubai explosive
Chopper: China’s housing price bubble burst more than the Dubai explosive
The afternoon of December 3 to participate in the activities of Shanghai Land afternoon tea, and "Shanghai Investment" editor in chief Hu Shenglin, high spirits, general manager of LI Xiao-line agencies together to talk about Dubai events. The following is documenting, idiopathic blog
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Dubai has the world’s only seven-star hotel, the world’s highest "Dubai Tower." However, more than ten years ago, it’s just an Arab town, no industry, oil accounted for only a small part of its economy. "Dubai has been able to in 10 years took place between the earth-shaking changes, mainly the Government in 1998 launched the real estate revitalization plan. The Government’s stimulus package makes Dubai house prices in 2004 has turned from a four-fold." By investing in real estate and infrastructure has created a miracle in Dubai to attract rich, star development of tourism, high-end real estate, to attract financial, shipping giants to develop the financial and shipping services, eventually to become Dubai’s glittering, lucrative pot of gold.
In Dubai before the full-blown world debt crisis, it is not only a miracle of architectural history, but also a seemingly never-shattered the myth of the property market, Hollywood star line, the British national team, with a high degree of business acumen … … surrounded by the Wenzhou businessmen in Dubai. Dubai was once proud to claim that the rise of the city’s magic, is "built on sand on a magic castle." In the past few years, Dubai to build logistics, transportation hub as the goal, and promote the building of up to 300 billion U.S. dollars-scale projects, making the debt of the government and state-owned enterprises like the snowball continued to grow.
"Highly dependent on the property in Dubai’s economic development model is the main reason for the crisis." Ride Shing Hong, general manager of marketing agency LI Xiao said, "Of course, with Dubai World on the excessive expansion of this enterprise." Participate in the remainder of this afternoon tea 2 guests, "Shanghai Investment" editor in chief Hu Shenglin and Sina Bo chopper on real estate property were created to acknowledge the main reason for its crisis, while Hu Shenglin added: "The real estate development in Dubai but also led to high-end development of tourism, this round The global financial crisis is not just for Dubai, the impact of the real estate industry, while tourism and other industries also had a shock. "
CCTV network-related, according to reports, the current prices in Dubai’s city center has dropped by half, about the status back to 2002. Dubai’s real estate run up by the "Magic Castle" a crisis, give the same amount in real estate hot in the Chinese economy has sounded the alarm. "If according to the current development model, the next one is absolutely a crisis in China." Chopper says decisively. China’s housing vacancy rate highest in the world, reaching 15%; price earnings ratio highest in the world, Shanghai has just announced a 12 to 1, while the national standard is 3 to 5 to 1; China’s rent return rate is a minimum point, first-tier cities about 2%, second and third line cities only 1%. Price bubble has been blown big.
Dubai, the occurrence of the debt crisis it all these years to attract hot money magnet effect is gone, the market worried about the emerging markets of international hot money judgments is likely to change. "Relevant data show that this year’s additional 100 billion of hot money, China currently has nearly 600 billion of international hot money, almost all of rolling in the real estate market." Chopper for China expressed concern about the worry of hot money, "Currently, Beijing on turnover of second-hand housing In the 1200 sets, this small city of Shenzhen on turnover of a breakthrough 900 second-hand housing units, Shanghai is more than 20 million sets of the listing, and this shows the real estate market has become a completely market speculation, government management of severe deficiency, leading to spread speculation. "chopper for the current property market is" in the money to shore up money market. " "Once the withdrawal of hot money, the property market will be hit hard."
According to British media reports, the emerging economies, often to attract international hot money. At the same time that the overseas media in Beijing, Shanghai should learn from the lessons of the crisis in Dubai. Beijing and Dubai are of international hot money favor the market. The economic crisis and are often from the real estate collapse. "In the past I have been more optimistic this year, I felt the market crisis-ridden." LI Xiao said, "developers have a house in Enclosures room, not yet built hoarding land, there is no way around the financing of the hard to buy land. Homebuyers who have bought the preparation buy, there is no bought the horse into the market, can not afford to borrow money to buy. crazy! "
"Dubai, the crisis has given a warning the Chinese market, residential is the essence of a livelihood, but not as a financial lever to operate." Chopper said. The current problems in the real estate market is to develop too fast, "contrary to objective laws, undermine the healthy food chain." Decade of real estate prosperity, three decades of rapid economic development so that many people had concerns about the development of the market outlook.
"Real estate should not be a pillar industry." Crisis of re-reflection from the Dubai real estate development in China’s current economic model, Hu Shenglin a bit heavy, "China is a large agricultural country, the people’s life is not relied on (real estate) led, therefore, Real estate can not be the pillar industry, more than just basic industries. As gas and so on, only the source of energy to develop into export-oriented industries have become a pillar industry. "
About Dubai crisis on China policy implications, the chopper that will prompt a new round of central bank interest rate increase. Hu Shenglin also believe that monetary policy will have some changes. LI Xiao believes that the first quarter of next year will usher in the beginning of the end of the second quarter of a new policy adjustments, but nothing to do with the current crisis in Dubai. For the current real estate economy led the development of the status quo, the audience that frustration. "Real estate development in China’s economic development model as a whole has played a significant role in economic development is a process," Hu Shenglin said, "the stable development of the real estate industry into the current stage of China’s economic development process of the choice of no choice."
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